By continuing you agree to the Terms. Your account & trading journal are securely saved to your private cloud — protected by row-level security, so only you can ever see your data.
Unlocked from your real track record — chase the locked ones
Risk budget
Live rule status for today's session
Equity curve
Cumulative realized P&L from start equity
Elite benchmark
You vs. top-decile journals
DEMO DATA
R-multiple distribution
Shape of your edge — where outcomes land
Setup performance
Expectancy by tagged setup
When you trade well
Avg R by weekday × session — find your dead hours
Session performance
Colour = expectancy, blank = no trades
Discipline trend
Score per trade over time
Edge & forecast
Calibration of your reads, and a Monte-Carlo path of where sizing takes you
Probability calibration
Prediction estimate vs. actual resolution
Monte-Carlo · next 40 trades
Resampled from your R-distribution at current risk
SIM
Pattern forecast TimesFM
Zero-shot time-series forecast — built-in by default, real Google TimesFM when the local service is running
Built-in forecaster
Loading forecast…
Built-in uses a damped-trend model with an 80% confidence band (the shaded cone). For real Google TimesFM (200M-param foundation model, pretrained on ~100B points), run the included timesfm_server.py — this panel auto-detects it on 127.0.0.1:8008 and the badge flips to “TimesFM live”. Forecasts are estimates, not financial advice.
Live prediction markets
Top markets by 24h volume — Polymarket & Kalshi · click Pre-trade to ticket one
LIVE
Loading live markets…
Who actually profits on prediction markets
What 72.1M trades across Polymarket & Kalshi reveal — and how to stay on the right side
RESEARCH
The maker–taker wealth transfer
Average excess return per trade, by your role in the order book
Takers cross the spread, chase “YES”
−1.12%
Makers provide liquidity, sell into hype
+1.12%
Profit comes from execution, not forecasting. Takers overpay for affirmative “YES” longshots; makers harvest that “optimism tax” just by being the counterparty. Takers post negative returns at 80 of 99 price levels.
The dataset
Largest public prediction-market dataset
72.1M
trades analyzed
$18.26B
volume
7.68M
markets
Every Kalshi trade, 2021–2025 (CFTC-regulated). Polymarket + Kalshi data open-sourced.
The longshot tax
What cheap “YES” bets actually return
4.18%
of 5¢ contracts win — not 5%. The longest shots historically pay ~43¢ on the dollar; a Vegas slot pays ~93¢.
−41%
expected return on a 1¢ YES bet. The same-priced NO side returns +23% — favour NO at the tails.
Topic decides your odds
Maker edge per trade by category — lower is more efficient, higher means takers bleed
Finance
0.17pp
Politics
1.02pp
Sports 72% of volume
2.23pp
Weather
2.57pp
Crypto
2.69pp
Entertainment
4.79pp
Media
7.28pp
World Events
7.32pp
How to stay a maker, not a taker
Your Probability calibration & Brier score above is exactly this test: if your “YES” estimates beat the market price after fees, you’re harvesting the optimism tax instead of paying it. Favour NO at the tails, fade emotional categories (Sports, Entertainment, World Events), and demand a real edge before sizing in.
Prototype styled after theorderbook.xyz. Benchmark figures are illustrative demo data. Pre-trade verdicts and autopsies are computed locally from your own rules and trades.
Top Traders
The most profitable perp whales on Hyperliquid — live, ranked by realized PnL.
● LIVE
live markets by 24h volume · click Pre-trade to ticket one
Loading live traders…
Live, keyless on-chain data — Hyperliquid leaderboard & whale positions (crypto + 🐋 Whale moves) and Polymarket markets (prediction). Whale moves aggregate the largest open positions across the top wallets, the same Hyperliquid source CoinGlass uses (CoinGlass's own API needs a paid key + server, so it can't run in this single file). If a feed is blocked by file:// it shows a labelled sample — run the local server for live data.
News & Community
Live crypto headlines, Reddit and Hacker News — pulled from free public feeds.
● LIVE
Loading latest news…
Sources: CryptoCompare News API (headlines & images), Reddit r/CryptoCurrency JSON, and the Hacker News (Algolia) API — all free, no API key. If a feed is blocked by your browser or region, hit Refresh or serve the page over http://.
Pre-trade check
DIRECTIONAL
Post-trade autopsy
Rules & account
These rules drive the pre-trade verdict and discipline scoring. Stored locally in this browser.
Welcome to copymytrade.xyz
Find proven traders, copy their books in one click, and stay sharp with pro-grade analytics. Here's the 30-second tour.
Discover the top traders
Leaderboards for crypto, prediction markets and live on-chain wallets — ranked by ROI, consistency or lowest risk. Flip to ⚡ Live for real Hyperliquid traders.
Copy a book in one click
Set an allocation and we mirror that trader's recent positions into your journal — scaled to your size and tagged Copy · @handle so you always know what's copied.
Trade with discipline
Before you size in, the pre-trade gate checks risk, R:R and your rules — then clears, cautions, or aborts. Works for directional and prediction trades alike.
Know your real edge
Calibration, Monte-Carlo risk-of-ruin, session heatmaps and discipline trends — copy the winners, cut what doesn't work. Let's go.